Who has the edge? Dolphins at Texans, in another must-win

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (6-7) and Houston Texans (8-5) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 15 game at NRG Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):

When the Dolphins run: This Miami run game has been in a major funk. In its past five games, the Dolphins have run for: 67 yards, 82, 65, 39 and 44 — the last coming in their win over the New York Jets. De’Von Achane started hot in terms of yards per carry, but he’s now under 4, at 3.9. Achane continues to handle a big workload, with 153 carries. With four games remaining, he already has more than a 50 percent increase in rushing attempts. Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright have had their rushing roles diminished, but coach Mike McDaniel could opt to give them more work at a moment’s notice.

The Dolphins specifically must do better in short-yardage situations, and the offensive line takes it upon itself to be more physical in those scenarios. Miami, now 24th in the NFL in rushing, faces a Houston run defense that ranks No. 10 in the league. That defensive front will be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, serving a three-game suspension for a vicious hit on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence that left him concussed. Henry To’oTo’o leads the team in tackles. Edge: Texans

When the Texans run: For as much as Achane carries the ball, Texans running back Joe Mixon sees even more action on the ground. Mixon, in just 10 games, has 205 rushing attempts, so expect him to get his 20 carries. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per attempt for 887 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

Houston’s No. 16 rushing offense goes against Miami’s seventh-ranked run defense. The Dolphins, of course, face a Texans offensive line anchored by former Miami first-round pick Laremy Tunsil, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, at left tackle. He, right guard Shaq Mason and right tackle Tytus Howard, a 2019 first-round pick, face the stout Dolphins front, which saw defensive tackle Zach Sieler earn AFC Defensive Player of the Week and linebacker Jordyn Brooks consistently swarming against the Jets. Edge: Even

When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is on a tear since his Week 8 return from concussion, leading the NFL in completions (200), completion percentage (76) and passing yards (1,973). He is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season. Tagovailoa has gone 184 consecutive pass attempts without throwing an interception, his second longest streak.

He’s coming off a game against the Jets where both of his star wide receivers — Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle — got going as well as they have since both had 100-yard outings in Week 1 against Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith is on pace for a record-breaking season for a Dolphins tight end, and after he went without a reception in regulation, he had three catches, 44 yards and the winning touchdown reception in overtime. This group of pass catchers faces a secondary that is second in the NFL with 16 interceptions and seventh overall in pass defense, but they have given up 26 passing touchdowns, second-worst in the league.

While the Texans will be without safety Jalen Pitre, on IR, keep an eye on cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie safety Calen Bullock with his team-leading four interceptions. Then, on the pass rush, defensive ends Danielle Hunter (10 1/2) and Will Anderson (9 1/2) are around double-digit sacks, against a Miami offensive line that has tackles Terron Armstead and Kendall Lamm banged up. Tagovailoa will have to keep getting the ball out quickly. Edge: Dolphins

When the Texans pass: Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has possibly hit a bit of a sophomore slump after a Pro Bowl rookie season. After throwing 23 touchdowns to five interceptions as a rookie in 2023, he has 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 13 games this season. His passer rating is down 13 points, from 100.8 to 87.9.

He had former Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to start the year, but he’s now on IR. Nico Collins and his league-leading 104 receiving yards per game is what the Dolphins have to worry about, which could mean putting Jalen Ramsey on him after Ramsey struggled a bit against Garrett Wilson of the Jets last Sunday. Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz will also have to be accounted for by the Dolphins’ No. 11 pass defense.

Houston is vulnerable in pass protection, allowing 42 sacks this season. Sieler could expand on his pair of sacks in the Jets game or Emmanuel Ogbah or Chop Robinson could apply pressure off the edge against Tunsil and Howard. Maybe edge rusher Bradley Chubb could be activated after a second week of practice. It would be great timing for a return to limited game reps for him in this pivotal matchup. Edge: Dolphins

Special teams: Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders, coming off his AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for November, missed his first kick in December on an extra point. He rebounded in a big way with a pair of 50-yarders, including one from 52 to force overtime against the Jets. On top of that for what has been an uneven special teams unit, Malik Washington’s return late in the fourth was critical in setting up that field goal, and Siran Neal made a great tackle in punt coverage.

Houston kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 31 of 37 field goals while connecting on all his extra points. Punter Tommy Townsend has had an exceptional season, but has had one punt blocked. Edge: Texans

Intangibles: There are a few factors clashing here. The Dolphins come in as winners of four of their past five. The Texans are 3-4 since their 5-1 start, so they haven’t been playing that great. Miami is fighting for its playoff lives. Houston, coming off a bye, has an AFC South-clinching scenario with a win and Colts loss Sunday. Edge: Even

PREDICTION: Dolphins 23, Texans 20

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