Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Who has the edge in season opener?

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s season opener at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS and Paramount+):

When the Dolphins run: Miami returns the No. 6 rushing offense, which was tops in the NFL in 2023 in terms of yards per attempt as the team was in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing attempts. The Jaguars have a top-10 run defense from last season, finishing ninth in that regard.

The Dolphins ground game returns the Raheem Mostert-De’Von Achane combination and added rookie Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee as a fourth-round pick. It’s yet to be determined how coach Mike McDaniel will spread out touches, but in general, one could expect some even distribution between Mostert and Achane with maybe some Wright sprinkled in when all healthy. Miami lost right guard Robert Hunt in free agency and no longer has Connor Williams at center, but Aaron Brewer should be a good scheme fit for the outside zone with his athleticism and Liam Eichenberg and Robert Jones are now in their third seasons in this system.

Jacksonville has a strong linebacker combination in Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd. It also added veteran defensive lineman Arik Armstead, so it won’t be easy for Miami to get its ground game going, but the Dolphins should still find chunk plays running the football. Edge: Dolphins

When the Jaguars run: Running back Travis Etienne comes off a 1,000-yard season in which he had 11 touchdowns on the ground, while also being a viable receiving threat. The Jaguars only ranked 24th in rushing in 2023 and 30th in yards per attempt, but getting Etienne going could be a way for them to keep the Dolphins’ high-powered offense off the field and control time of possession.

Brandon Scherff at right guard and a familiar face at center in Mitch Morse, formerly of the Buffalo Bills, will help pave the way for Etienne. The Dolphins finished seventh in run defense last season, but they no longer have Christian Wilkins on the defensive line. Zach Sieler is back and now has 38-year-old Calais Campbell with him up front, along with Benito Jones at nose tackle to replace Raekwon Davis. David Long Jr. is great against the run at linebacker, and Jordyn Brooks could be an upgrade over Jerome Baker. Rookie edge rusher Chop Robinson could be someone the Jags try to attack in the ground game, so he’ll need to set the edge or get some help on his side if he becomes a liability as a run defender. Edge: Even

When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa comes off his first Pro Bowl season in 2023 after leading the NFL in passing yards (4,624), throwing 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on a completion percentage of 69.3. He also scored his four-year, $212.4 million contract extension. He and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle return to last season’s top passing offense, which added tight end Jonnu Smith and can incorporate Mostert and Achane out of the backfield. But Odell Beckham Jr.’s Miami debut will have to wait, as he starts the season on the physically-unable-to-perform list.

Hill, who comes off his career-high of 1,799 receiving yards, may draw the matchup of cornerback and South Florida product Tyson Campbell, who played high school football at American Heritage and then collegiately at Georgia. The Jaguars secondary, which already ranked 26th against the pass last season, lost safety Rayshawn Jenkins, the former Miami Hurricane, in the offseason. They enter with a new scheme in 2024 after bringing in defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen.

Where Jacksonville is dangerous is with the pass rush on the edge. Josh Hines-Allen (17 1/2 sacks) and Travon Walker (10 sacks) will have to be contained in matchups that will belong to respective tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson. They should be fairly reliable on the ends, even against the high-end pass rushers, but Hines-Allen and Walker coming around up the middle on twists and stunts could put Tagovailoa in a predicament against Miami’s interior offensive line. Nonetheless, Tua knows how to get the ball out quickly. Edge: Dolphins

When the Jaguars pass: Also getting his second contract this offseason was Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He was granted the trust of the franchise after throwing 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his third NFL season. His ability to scramble is also something Dolphins defenders will have to key in on.

Star Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who first entered the NFL with the Jaguars, has missed practice early in the week with a hamstring injury. If healthy, he may not be needed to necessarily shadow any top Jaguars receiving target. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley is gone, and Jacksonville brought in Gabe Davis, formerly of Buffalo, to go with returning Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. Tight end Evan Engram is a target to watch, and that responsibility could lie with either safety Jevon Holland or Jordan Poyer. The Miami secondary didn’t spent much time together in training camp, so that’s something to watch as cornerbacks Kendall Fuller and Kader Kohou also factor into coverage plans.

The Dolphins also have questions on how much of a pass rush they can produce Week 1. Jaelan Phillips will be on some type of a snap count. Bradley Chubb, of course, starts the season on PUP list. Emmanuel Ogbah, rookies Robinson and Mohamed Kamara and former practice squad member Quinton Bell could all play key roles in the debut for Anthony Weaver as defensive coordinator. Edge: Jaguars

Special teams: We have no idea what will happen on kick returns given the new rules, but that will be one of the more interesting subplots Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins return their trio of specialists in kicker Jason Sanders, who had a nice comeback season in 2023, punter/holder Jake Bailey and long snapper Blake Ferguson. The Jaguars have a rookie kicker in Cam Little, but new return specialist Devin Duvernay has given Miami problems in the past with Baltimore, returning a kickoff for a touchdown against the Dolphins in 2022. It comes down to adjusting to the new kickoff rules, though. Edge: Even

Intangibles: It’s the start of a new season at home and the Dolphins are usually good at Hard Rock Stadium in early-season 1 p.m. kickoffs. That advantage is a bit diminished against another Florida team, however, but you still give Miami the edge in this circumstance against a team they know is hungry to get back into the playoffs. Edge: Dolphins

PREDICTION: Dolphins 27, Jaguars 20

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