Chris Perkins: Reality for Dolphins is get the ball to Tyreek, or kiss playoffs goodbye

Let me say this right away: The Miami Dolphins’ offensive problems, as I’ve told you before, are bigger than quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The offensive problems are systemic and institutional.

Having said that, it’s tough to know where to start when analyzing the Dolphins’ feckless 16-10 loss at Indianapolis.

Do you start with the fact that the Dolphins are mysteriously unable to get the ball to wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and because of that, predictably, their one-dimensional offense is stuck in the mud?

Do you start with the fact that the Dolphins erroneously and ridiculously thought they could beat the Colts with only their running game?

Or do you start with the fact that the Dolphins’ bad quarterback decisions are still coming back to haunt them?

It’s a tough one.

But let’s start where I always start … this Dolphins offense is about two things — Tyreek Hill, and the threat of Tyreek Hill.

Let me put it in a simpler way: If the Dolphins can’t get the ball to speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill, they’re done. Period. No playoffs. No nothing.

Tyreek had one reception for eight yards Sunday. He was targeted just twice.

That’s unacceptable and inexcusable.

Tyreek, not Tua, is the key to the Dolphins offense.

The Dolphins can’t beat you any other way than with Tyreek Hill.

Draw the lines back to that 28-27 Tennessee loss late last season when Hill got hurt by that combination horse collar/hip-drop tackle. He was never the same the rest of that season, and neither was the Dolphins offense.

The problem is the issue with Tyreek being silenced has crept into this season.

Tyreek has 55 receptions for 674 yards and three touchdowns in his past 11 games (he missed the 30-0 win over the New York Jets late last season). He has just one 100-yard game in that span.

The Dolphins are 3-8 in those games, and they average just 14.5 points per game.

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Once an opponent decides to heavily focus on stopping Tyreek, whether it’s with the two-high safety defense, shadowing him, or whatever, it’s all over for the Dolphins offense and coach Mike McDaniel, the offense’s architect and play-caller.

Look at the bigger picture.

The Dolphins entered Sunday’s contest averaging 12 points per game this season, worst in the league.

They went below expectations against the Colts by scoring only 10 points.

It gets worse.

The Dolphins are 4-8 in their past 12 games (Tua has started eight of those games and gone 3-5).

They’re averaging 15.8 points per game in that span (they averaged 18.6 ppg with Tua).

Basically, the Dolphins have no idea how to execute an offense if Tyreek isn’t heavily involved.

This offense can’t beat you on the ground. They can only beat you through the air with big plays that feature Tyreek.

Here’s Exhibit A.

The Dolphins got lucky to squeak past New England, 15-10, two weeks ago (Patriots wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk’s foot came down out of the end zone late in the game and that would have secured their victory).

And it just so happened that the Dolphins had a 41-carry, 193-yard performance in the victory.

All of a sudden, they mistakenly thought they were a running team.

But there’s a stipulation: running teams practice the run and things that go along with the run, such as ball security.

The Dolphins had 40 carries for 188 yards against the Colts.

They also had two crucial lost fumbles by running back Raheem Mostert (11 carries, 50 yards) and fullback Alec Ingold (two carries, minus-1 yards).

Again, the Dolphins don’t win by running the ball.

Worse, rookie running back Jaylen Wright, who sparked the run game against the Patriots with 13 carries for a team-best 86 yards, didn’t even get a carry until the second half.

Wright, who looked like the Dolphins’ best running back after the Patriots game, ended with 33 yards on five carries (team-best 6.6 yards per carry) Sunday.

He should have been the main ball carrier Sunday. He runs harder than anyone else and gets tough yards between the tackles.

Chalk it up to another offensive miscalculation by the Dolphins.

It’s like how they miscalculated the quarterback situation from giving Tua the four-year, $212 million extension, to not properly preparing backup Skylar Thompson for the Seattle game, to cutting Mike White after training camp, signing Tim Boyle, and then signing Tyler “Snoop” Huntley and starting him against Tennessee about two weeks after he arrived in town.

The Dolphins (2-4) probably need to go 7-4 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. That’ll give them a 9-8 record that might get them a wild-card berth.

This is on McDaniel, the creator of this toothless offense.

And considering he’s now got a 22-20 (.524) record as head coach, including playoffs, and his offense is averaging a league-worst 11.7 points per game, things aren’t looking good, even with Tua.

The Dolphins were 8-0 last season when Tyreek had more than 100 yards receiving. Miami is 1-0 this year when Tyreek has more than 100 yards receiving. The Dolphins are 1-4 this season when Tyreek has fewer than 100 yards receiving.

The biggest test of McDaniel’s 2024 season going forward is figuring out how to get the ball to Tyreek.

If he can’t do that, it’s all over.